There’s a lot at stake in the 2016 presidential election. While U.S. Supreme Court nominations may not be the most headline-grabbing stories that come out of a presidency, they probably should be. With Supreme Court justices serving for life and having significant power in interpreting laws that affect our daily lives, the importance of court appointments cannot be overstated.
This election, in particular, could shape up to be one of the most important elections in terms of shaping the court in American history. After Antonin Scalia’s death earlier this year, Republicans in Congress have sworn to prevent a replacement from being chosen until after the election and have stalled President Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland for more than 150 days. In all likelihood, it will be up to the winner of the 2016 presidential election to choose Scalia’s replacement, be it Garland or someone else.
But that’s not the end of the story. According to a 2006 study by the Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy, the average retirement age for Supreme Court justices is 78.7. As of the beginning of the next president’s term, three of the nine justices will be older than 80. Another will be 78. While those justices seem healthy and committed to staying on the court for the near future, Scalia seemed the same way before passing away at 79. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the next president could literally appoint a majority to the court, especially if elected for a second term.
It isn’t necessarily the case that the appointment of one or two new justices will make a significant shift right away, but over time, replacing Scalia with a justice that is less of a right-wing ideologue has the potential to reshape many areas of American law—and, in particular, much of the law surrounding the rights and lives of working people. Here are six reasons that Supreme Court nominations are one of the most important issues in the 2016 elections:
1. Gerrymandering: With a case already moving its way through the courts, this one could come up soon. And it’s a big one. Ever wonder why the country keeps voting for Democrats for president, but Republicans control Congress? A key reason is gerrymandering, the process of drawing the district lines for congressional seats for partisan advantage. Currently, 55% of congressional districts were created to favor Republicans, compared to 10% drawn in favor of Democrats. That’s why, in 2012, when Barack Obama won re-election and a majority of votes for congressional seats went to Democrats (50.59%), Republicans managed to somehow get a significant majority of House seats (53.79%). In that cycle, 1.37 million more Americans voted for Democrats, only to see Democrats end up with 33 fewer seats in the House. If one spends any time reading constitutional law, they’ll find that the precedent is pretty strongly against this type of gerrymandering. A court appointed by Hillary Clinton would likely frown heavily on this type of manipulation of the electorate.
2. Voting Rights: In 2013, the court issued a ruling that shocked President Obama, legal scholars, civil rights groups and historians. The conservative majority on the court gutted the enforcement mechanism for the Voting Rights Act. This was almost immediately followed by states that were previously required, based on a history of discrimination, to get Department of Justice approval for changes to voting laws, passing a series of laws that made it harder for many, particularly African Americans, to vote. Republicans passed laws shortening voting hours, eliminating early voting and making it harder to register and harder to vote, among other new obstacles to people exercising their right to vote. Many of these laws have been rejected by courts, and it’s likely that the Supreme Court would look very negatively on them.
3. Citizens United: The court ruled that corporations can spend as much as they want to influence elections, as long as they spend it independently of campaigns. This led to tons of money flowing into elections and the creation of super PACs. Clinton wants this ruling overturned and said she’d appoint justices that would do so. Trump’s on the other side. Clinton-appointed justices are likely to take a stricter look at other attempts by corporations and the wealthy to have more influence on elections than the rest of the electorate.
4. Corporate Influence in Supreme Court Cases: A recent study found that between 2009–2012, the one entity most likely to get a hearing at the Supreme Court, out of all petitioners, was the Chamber of Commerce. The court was not only more likely to hear cases championed by the chamber, it was more likely to decide in favor of the corporate interests the chamber supported. The court also made it harder for citizens to engage in class-action lawsuits, making it harder for citizens to sue corporations like Comcast or Walmart for hurting working people or consumers and making it less likely those working people and consumers would win cases before the court. Additionally, in the notorious Hobby Lobby case, the court allowed some corporations a religious exemption, allowing them not to provide insurance coverage for contraception. Other anti-working people decisions in recent years involved making it easier for judges to dismiss cases earlier, without going to trial, and requiring some consumers to submit to arbitration, rather than going to court.
5. Workplace Fairness: A series of 5–4 decisions during the John Roberts Court era have come down against working people and their rights on the job. These rulings will be ripe for challenges once Scalia’s seat on the court is filled. Among the key rulings that are under scrutiny are those that make it harder to sue in cases of pay discrimination, make it easier to retaliate against and fire employees who report job bias claims, make it harder to prove age discrimination on the job, weakened the Family and Medical Leave Act, made it easier to promote “right to work” at a national level, weakened overtime protections, made it easier to dismiss wage theft claims and made it easier to fire public employees for public statements made in the course of their duties.
6. Deportations: Earlier this year, the court effectively killed an executive order from Obama that would have shielded as many as 4 million undocumented immigrants from deportation. It will likely be considered again under a new court.
Any number of other issues that affect working people could also come before the Supreme Court, including, but not limited to: education funding, Medicaid expansion, public funding of elections, solitary confinement of inmates, prison overcrowding and many other issues.
This blog originally appeared in aflcio.org on August 30, 2016. Reprinted with permission.
Kenneth Quinnell: I am a long-time blogger, campaign staffer and political activist. Before joining the AFL-CIO in 2012, I worked as labor reporter for the blog Crooks and Liars. Previous experience includes Communications Director for the Darcy Burner for Congress Campaign and New Media Director for the Kendrick Meek for Senate Campaign, founding and serving as the primary author for the influential state blog Florida Progressive Coalition and more than 10 years as a college instructor teaching political science and American History. My writings have also appeared on Daily Kos, Alternet, the Guardian Online, Media Matters for America, Think Progress, Campaign for America’s Future and elsewhere. I am the proud father of three future progressive activists, an accomplished rapper and karaoke enthusiast.
